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How Long Does It Take NBA Rookies to Become Stars?

How long does it take NBA rookies to become stars? Often three to five seasons, though Giannis, Dirk, LeBron and Wade show why there is no fixed clock.

By Brett Hanson · Underdog Podcasts · October 23, 2023

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Victor Wembanyama blocked five shots against Golden State in a 2023 preseason game. Five blocks, and Chris Craig watched the highlights only to come away thinking Wembanyama would need time. Eric Mulligan, meanwhile, was already wondering how many Spurs games he could watch from New York.

How long does it take NBA rookies to become stars? A useful answer is three to five seasons, though there is no set clock. Some arrive with star-level skill. Others need years to earn a bigger role. And even a rookie who looks ready can spend several seasons waiting for his team to catch up.

The exchange comes from “Wembanyama Madness & More!” on Around The NBA: With Chris and Eric. It catches the hosts at a familiar point in a young player’s career: the highlights are real, and so is the urge to skip ahead.

Why do NBA rookies take years to become stars?

A rookie season asks two different questions. One is immediate: can this player help an NBA team now? The other takes longer to answer: how good might he become? The answers can be miles apart.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is a good place to start. Milwaukee picked him 15th in 2013. He averaged 6.8 points as a rookie and made the All-Rookie Second Team. By 2016-17, his fourth season, he averaged 22.9 points and made his first All-Star team. The jump was enormous. It also took four winters of NBA games.

Mulligan brought up Giannis while answering a listener who wanted a timeline for Portland’s young team. He said fans could see promise in Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe without expecting them to play like finished stars right away. Craig agreed that their best years might still be several seasons off.

There is a catch in Mulligan’s example. Giannis was the 15th pick, not a prospect everyone expected to rule the league. Looking back makes his rise seem easier to spot than it was. Milwaukee had to give a young player room to grow without knowing exactly where he would end up.

That is what makes rookie forecasts so hard. Minutes, strength and a player’s job can all change. A low scoring average may tell you how much a coach asked a rookie to do. It cannot tell you how much that rookie will be able to do at 24.

How long did Dirk Nowitzki take to break out?

Dirk Nowitzki offers the sort of rookie stat that would cause a week of worried phone calls. He shot 20.6% from three-point range in 1998-99. He averaged 8.2 points and started 24 of his 47 games. This was a future great shooter missing nearly four out of five threes.

Mulligan cited that first season when he and Craig discussed Portland’s prospects. His point was fair: a player can have the right long-term skill and still look shaky while learning when to use it. In Nowitzki’s second season, his three-point mark climbed to 37.9%, and he averaged 17.5 points. By his third, he was up to 21.8 points per game.

That is a fast climb once it begins. The rookie line alone would never have told you the shape of it.

Nowitzki later won the 2007 regular-season MVP award and the 2011 Finals MVP award. Those honors should not turn every poor rookie shooting year into a secret sign of greatness. Plenty of players miss threes in year one and keep missing them. Dirk’s numbers show something narrower and more useful: one season is a small sample of a career, especially when a player’s role changes almost as quickly as his shooting.

When did Shai Gilgeous-Alexander become a star?

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s rise was quieter at first. He averaged 10.8 points for the Clippers as a rookie in 2018-19 and started 73 of 82 games. That is a solid first year. It does not sound like the opening chapter of a scoring champion.

He moved to Oklahoma City before his second season. In 2022-23, his fifth year, he averaged 31.4 points. He made his first All-Star team and earned an All-NBA First Team place. The guard who had been a useful rookie was now one of the league’s hardest players to stop.

“I think he's still gonna take some time though to become the player that he's going to become.”
— Chris Craig, on Around The NBA: With Chris and Eric

Mulligan used Gilgeous-Alexander as another reason to give young players time. The comparison works best as a warning against setting an exact deadline. Shai played plenty from the start, then grew into a much larger scoring job. His early numbers showed he belonged. They did not show his ceiling.

There is a team lesson here, too. A player has to improve, but he also needs the ball and the freedom to learn what to do with it. Give a young guard more chances and his mistakes may rise along with his points. That can be frustrating to watch in November. It may look different after a full season.

Was LeBron James already a star as a rookie?

Yes. LeBron James is the awkward case for any neat rule about waiting. He averaged 20.9 points and 5.9 assists for Cleveland in 2003-04. Those are star-level rookie numbers. The Cavaliers still finished 35-47.

Mulligan recalled that James missed the playoffs in each of his first two seasons. Cleveland reached the postseason in his third. In his fourth, Cleveland reached the Finals and lost to San Antonio in 2007. Craig followed the comparison as the hosts imagined what a similar climb might mean for Portland.

The distinction matters. James did not need four years to become excellent. Cleveland needed time to turn an excellent young player into a Finals team. Treating those as the same event puts an unfair burden on a rookie.

It also makes team records a poor shortcut. One player takes only so many shots and guards only one assignment at a time. A new star can change a team’s future before he changes its place in the standings. Cleveland’s first two James seasons make that point plainly, without asking anyone to pretend his rookie year was ordinary.

Can an NBA rookie become a star faster?

Dwyane Wade did. He averaged 16.2 points as a Miami rookie in 2003-04 and helped the Heat make the playoffs. His scoring rose to 24.1 points the next season, then 27.2 in 2005-06. By the end of that third year, he had a championship and the Finals MVP award.

Mulligan brought up Wade as the faster path he would have loved to see for Portland. Craig paused to ask whether Wade’s first title came before LeBron joined him. Mulligan said yes. It was 2006, four years before James arrived in Miami.

Wade’s rise was quick. His situation changed quickly, too. Shaquille O’Neal joined the Heat before Wade’s second season. That does not make Wade’s work any less remarkable; in the 2006 Finals, he averaged 34.7 points as Miami beat Dallas. It does show why a championship is a tricky measure of how fast one young player developed.

Wade was ready for a starring role early, and Miami had a team capable of making his third season count. Most rookies do not get both pieces at once. Waiting for a young player to improve can be sensible. Demanding that every young player wait is just as foolish.

Do preseason highlights tell you how good a rookie will be?

Wembanyama gave Craig and Mulligan plenty to talk about. Against Golden State that October, he scored 19 points, blocked five shots and played 21 minutes. Mulligan said opponents looked afraid to shoot. Craig could see the same defensive threat and still expected San Antonio to struggle.

Both reactions had room to be right. Wembanyama went on to average 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds and a league-leading 3.6 blocks as a rookie. He won Rookie of the Year. The Spurs finished 22-60.

Preseason highlights can reveal a skill. They cannot show how that skill will hold up across 82 games, or whether four teammates can turn it into wins. Even Wembanyama’s extraordinary first year left those questions open for San Antonio.

So watch the small changes. Does a rookie get more minutes? Does he make a better choice when a defender takes away his favorite move? Can he help after the other team has seen him twice? Those are less fun to clip than a blocked shot against the Warriors. Craig was right to keep watching after the clip ended.

The full episode of Around The NBA: With Chris and Eric is on Underdog Podcasts, with the rest of the network's shows.