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Brazil Survives, Germany Falls and France Faces Sweden

Chris Horwedel June 30, 2026

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This week on The Underdog World Cup Show:

On this episode of The Underdog World Cup Show, Chris Horwedel recaps a dramatic Round of 32 day at the 2026 World Cup, where Brazil survived Japan, Paraguay stunned Germany, and Morocco eliminated the Netherlands on penalties. The show opens in Houston, where Brazil needed a stoppage-time Gabriel Martinelli winner to beat Japan after Kaishu Sano gave Japan a first-half lead. Chris breaks down Brazil’s possession edge, Casemiro’s equalizer, Bruno Guimarães’ late setup, Japan’s impressive performance, and the concern around Casemiro’s apparent leg issue.

The episode then moves to the biggest upset of the day, as Paraguay knocked out Germany in a penalty shootout after a 1-1 draw. Julio Enciso scored Paraguay’s first-ever World Cup knockout goal, Kai Havertz equalized, and José Canale converted the decisive penalty as Germany lost a World Cup shootout for the first time ever. Chris explains why the result is historic for Paraguay and another painful tournament failure for Germany.

Morocco’s win over the Netherlands closes the recap, with Issa Diop’s stoppage-time header forcing penalties and Yassine Bounou becoming the shootout hero before Ismael Saibari buried the winner. Chris then previews today’s knockout slate: Ivory Coast vs. Norway, France vs. Sweden, and Mexico vs. Ecuador. The preview highlights Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard leading Norway, Ivory Coast’s physical edge, France’s scary depth behind Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé, Sweden’s upset potential through Viktor Gyökeres and Alexander Isak, and Mexico’s perfect defensive record facing an Ecuador team that already shocked Germany.

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Author

Chris Horwedel

A lifelong sports fan who created NFL Draft Blitz all the way back in 1999. Chris founded Deep(ish) Thoughts in July of 2015 and that evolved into Underdog Sports in September of 2017. In his spare time, he enjoys watching Philadelphia sports teams, especially his beloved 76ers. #TrustTheProcess is a way of life.

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